Bill Gates details how his foundation shifted focus “almost entirely” to addressing COVID-19

Microsoft founder Bill Gates spoke to the Financial Times (via Fast Company) about how the work of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has shifted “almost entirely” to working on addressing COVID-19, in the interest of making the post impact possible in the ongoing effort to contain and combat the global coronavirus pandemic. Gates told the FT that the spread of COVID-19 could have dire economic consequences which will result in more suffering globally than anyone could’ve anticipated, hence the need to address it with the full weight of the resources of one of the world’s most well-capitalized charitable organizations.

The Bill & Melinda Gates foundation has been funding vaccine trials, clinical studies and basic research related to drug and therapy development for COVID-19 since basically the disease debuted on the world scene. It means that the exiting mandate of the foundation, which includes seeking to eradicate polio and AIDS worldwide, will be temporarily slowed or paused while the organization focuses its resources on the pandemic, but Gates’ decision to focus the group’s significant resources here should only emphasize the seriousness of the situation.

The foundation’s temporary shift is actually, long-term, the best way it can serve its core goals, since the global impact of the coronavirus crisis is likely to have repercussions for every aspect of human life, including access to medical care, testing and therapies, not to mention food and basic necessities. Curbing the disease’s spread early could have the most significant impact in economies ill-prepared to deal with the fallout, and any impact there will eventually result in better ability to work on eradicating those other diseases in a reasonable timeline, instead of undermining local infrastructure and allowing them a longer foothold.

In a 2015 TED talk, Gates predicted the coming of a global outbreak and urged global health organizations and governments to come together to prepare for what to do in case of a large, widespread contagion. Gates was working mostly from the perspective of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, which exposed many of the existing gaps and flaws in the system, but his advice seems prescient in retrospect.

Unfortunately, Gates has been subject to a lot of spreading misinformation and bogus conspiracy theory nonsense owing to heightened paranoia and activity among groups that normally peddle in this kind of falsehood. Based on this interview, Gates seems to essentially expect that as something of a matter of course for high-profile individuals, however, and it doesn’t appear to be impacting the foundation’s ability to focus on potential fixes.

Coordinated response required to optimize telehealth during COVID-19 pandemic

As the COVID-19 epidemic scales exponentially across the United States, calls for expended use of telehealth, innovative technology solutions and optimization of life-saving critical care hospital beds clearly highlight unmet needs in the American healthcare system.

Based on lessons from both recent Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), those of us who are experienced in outbreak response know that the difference between success and failure in responding to the current pandemic will depend equally on what is done and how it is done.

As a nation that prides itself on independence, innovation and ingenuity, the United States must understand that ill-considered heroics can cost lives and that a coordinated response is the best response. That is, if the measure of success is the number of lives saved.

Solutions must be conceived, built and deployed on the ground

One of the first rules of humanitarian and disaster response is that the boots on the ground (BOTG) must be in control. When it comes to technology delivery, this has multiple essential implications. First, the ultimate arbiter of requirements is the field team. The last thing patients or front-line responders need is programmers sitting at home writing code and arguing with health workers in the trenches about functions and features. It never works. Even when agreement is perceived via remote conversations, the reality on the ground may be different or may change instantly, negating previously agreed-upon specifications.

My own personal experience with these hard facts occurred toward the end of the West African EVD outbreak.

In May of 2015, as the case count was trending toward zero and our efforts turned to rebuilding local health systems that had been devastated early in the outbreak, I was writing apps that would enable the proper triage of a possible Ebola patient. These apps were somewhat complex algorithmically but had to be presented graphically to make this process as easy as taking a fast-food order.

This is not difficult—the apps are menu-driven and graphical. Workers simply input symptoms by selecting pictures and the menu walks them through the process. I spent several weeks building and testing the apps based on forms that had been emailed to me directly from the clinic.

When I arrived a week later, however, the people who had emailed me the material I used to develop the apps told me that that the forms were incorrect and they had never seen them before. Having anticipated this possibility, I spent the next 36 hours completely re-writing the apps and the project was highly successful.

My lesson? The time I spent coding apps remotely from emailed specs was wasted; I should have traveled earlier and built the apps on the ground. They would have been correct the first time and the project could have started at least two weeks earlier.

Use privacy-preserving technologies at the outset

The humanitarian response sector operates with a deep understanding that all interventions in crisis settings have corresponding risks to the immediate victims as well as to the responders. Key to mitigating these risks are ethical frameworks that protect all parties from immediate and longer-term consequences. As new procedures and technologies are quickly deployed against COVID-19, there is neither reason nor excuse to jeopardize patient privacy or expose healthcare workers and institutions to additional liability risk.

Because data sharing is essential to combating this pandemic, privacy-preserving technologies should be employed at the outset of implementing any technical solutions. For example, tokenization is a well-understood privacy-preserving technique for facilitating data sharing. A good start would be to automatically tokenize every COVID-19 test result, thereby enabling detailed data sharing across various response capabilities.

Importantly, digital health tools contain the inherent capacity to ensure ethical medical intervention. In light of this, any calls to weaken patient protections for the sake of technological priorities must be viewed both skeptically and critically.

Focus on consistent, automated and standardized data collection

Even in a public health emergency, consistent if not fully standardized data collection is a necessity, not a luxury.

The West African EVD outbreak that struck Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone outpaced the ability of any one government to stop it. This necessitated that the World Health Organization (WHO) play a coordinating role — one that proved highly beneficial. Although the WHO’s response was not perfect, it nevertheless included the publication of a strategic plan that included communications strategies, training on personal protective equipment, case definitions and medical and epidemiological data collection and management standards.

Activities were coordinated across 60 specialized Ebola treatment units that were capable of providing approximately 3,000 beds for Ebola care in the three countries most affected by the outbreak. Further, more than 40 organizations and 58 foreign medical teams deployed an estimated 2,500 international personnel as well as thousands of local staff.

The United States is already at this scale of response for the COVID-19 pandemic, and we anticipate continued exponential growth. Given the magnitude of current and future challenges to healthcare and public health systems and resources, adopting a common approach to data collection and sharing is essential. Such a step need not be difficult: a simple digital questionnaire comprising 5-10 questions and employed during every telehealth session would afford substantial insights into the presentation, triage, treatment and follow-up of the disease.

In Sierra Leone we did this with inexpensive Android apps that ensured high-quality data collection and availability. The key to the success of this effort was that the coordinated response effort provided standard definitions, questionnaires and data management requirements that were employed with surprising efficacy and consistency across a decentralized multinational response.

If we standardize data collection via a simple triage app or case report form, people will use them, regardless of the format—especially if data collection can be done by nonclinical staff, thus allowing doctors and nurses to devote more of their precious time to patient care.

Make use of all “free” metadata and technology capabilities

Another essential lesson from the experience of responding to outbreaks in low-resource settings is to “use all parts of the animal.” For example: when we replaced or supplemented paper contract tracing with digital data collection, accuracy and reliability were improved thanks to the other “free” capabilities already available with the mobile devices. The global positioning system (GPS) capabilities of the cheap Android phones we used provided exact geolocation coordinates.

Video recording captured and documented complex consent discussions in multiple languages with village chieftains. Training videos could be reviewed on-demand and repeatedly by rapidly-trained workers who were rushing into complex and potentially dangerous situations.

As we spin up our response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to apply this type of thinking about the exploitation of native technology features and metadata to telehealth capabilities. Starting with the foundation of privacy-preserving tools and techniques, the IP addresses, duration, and timestamps of telehealth sessions could be used to establish a real-time dashboard of medical consults for every state, region, and town.

Overlaying tokenized COVID-19 test results could provide a view of disease incidence at a city-block level of detail that would improve the certainty of risk determination and treatment recommendations. In low-resource settings, which the United States is quickly becoming, taking a “waste not, want not” approach to technologies and metadata is essential.

Use pre-existing, purpose-built toolsets

Among the most painful lessons from the West African Ebola outbreak were the importance of time and the understanding that smaller interventions deployed earlier would have prevented major systemic stresses later. Many efforts to deliver technology solutions started from scratch and took too long to build and deploy. Amid the demands of the current pandemic, we don’t have the luxury of forgetting these lessons.

There are already specialized, fit-for-purpose toolsets available for infectious disease outbreaks. CommCare by Dimagi, for example, is an open-source Android platform that has COVID-19-specific contact tracing applications and other toolsets ready to deploy. All parties seeking to obtain or deliver technology solutions should consult experts and seek off-the-shelf solutions BEFORE anyone writes a single line of code.

Patients are waiting, and the “when” may be more important than the “how.” Or, in other words: smaller solutions delivered when needed beat grand solutions delivered after the need has passed.

The battle with the current pandemic is being fought in clinics, doctor’s offices, hospitals and via telehealth sessions as I write this, and there is no time to waste. The people on the front lines are our “boots on the ground.” Let’s get them every tool they need as quickly and effectively as we can.

Hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine and other potential COVID-19 treatments explained

During two of this week’s White House briefings, President Trump referred specifically to two potential treatments that have been identified by medical researchers and clinicians, and that have undergone various degrees of investigation and testing in the ongoing fight against the global coronavirus pandemic. It’s important to note upfront that regardless of what you may have heard, from Trump or any other sources, no drugs or treatments have been proven as effective for either the prevention of contracting COVID-19, or for its treatment.

That said, a number of different clinical studies are currently in progress all over the world, and in the U.S., the National Institutes of Health is looking to fill a 400-volunteer study that will provide clinical results related to use of remdesivir, an antiviral drug developed by Gilead originally as a treatment for Ebola, but it’s still only in clinical trials even for treatment of that disease. This study could also add in other drug candidates as additional test therapies. Meanwhile, studies in China and France have examined the effectiveness of anti-malarial drugs including chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine – including one small-scale study that suggests the positive effects of hydroxycholoroquine in reducing both the duration and symptoms of COVID-19 in combination with an antibiotic called azithromycin.

The important thing to keep in mind when considering these or any other potential treatments for the novel coronavirus, which is still relatively young, is that a lot of what we know about them so far is effectively anecdotal, and based not on the kind of scientifically rigours controlled clinical studies that are normally used in the years-long development and certification of drugs. Instead, treatments like remdesivir and chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine are being deployed in the field by healthcare practitioners based on their approved use in similar (but crucially not the same) situations, like the Ebola and SARS outbreaks.

Often, they’re being used under what’s called ‘compassionate’ grounds in the U.S. This effectively amounts to employing a drug that’s not yet certified for general use in treatment of a patient whose condition is so severe that a doctor is willing to go to desperate lengths to try to alleviate their symptoms. This has the advantage of sidestepping typical testing and approval procedures, and requiring that the results of its use are documented, which contributes to the overall body of clinical knowledge in terms of its effects and interactions with patients and with COVID-19.

It’s not a clinical study, however, and that means there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to its use that just can’t be learned or asserted based on scattered, individual instances of compassionate care treatment.

“As the Commissioner of FDA and the President mentioned yesterday, we’re trying to strike a balance between making something with the potential of an effect available to the American people, at the same time that we do it under the auspices of a protocol that would give us information to determine if it’s truly safe and truly effective,” explained National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci during a press conference on Friday. “But the information that you’re referring to specifically is anecdotal, it was not done in a controlled clinical trial. So you really can’t make any definitive statement about it.”

During Thursday’s White House coronavirus pandemic task force briefing, Trump made false claims that chloroquine was already approved by the FDA as a treatment for COVID-19 under an emergency authorization. FDA Director Dr. Stephen Hahn clarified that this and remdesivir were being considered and studied by the FDA, as was an approach that would use plasma extracted from patients who’d recovered from COVID-19 as a potential source of antibodies for others. Still, all of these are still quite far away from clinical deployment in any generally approved way.

Meanwhile, Fauci’s cautions should be taken for what they are: Warnings that are primarily meant to emphasize that the reasons the FDA requires clinical studies, even for drugs already tentatively approved for use in other cases, is because it has patient health and safety in mind. While chloroquine has been used for decades to treat malaria, and chronic rheumatoid arthritis, it can have dangerous side effects, including death, if taken incorrectly. Even when taken correctly, it can cause things like stomach distress, and even permanent damage to a person’s vision.

Fauci’s comments Friday explain the risks of putting too much stock in any potential treatment at this stage, even if they are showing promising results among small or even medium-sized deployments.

“You’ve got to be careful when you say fairly effective, it was never done in a clinical trial that compared it to anything,” he said in answer to a reporter’s question about chloroquine’s efficacy in treating SARS. “It was given to individuals and felt that maybe it worked […] Whenever you do a clinical trial, you do standard of care, versus standard of care plus the agent you’re evaluating. That’s the reason why we showed back in Ebola why particular interventions worked.”

A summary survey of various prospective treatments and their current status was published today In Medscape, and this includes the current state of remdesivir and chloroquine investigations, as well as a number of other drugs being studied by researchers. As has been reported here and elsewhere, there are promising signs that they could prove effective in either treatment, or treatment and even preventative use (in the case of remedesivir), but these are, as Dr. Fauci puts it, only the first step that should lead to more sophisticated clinical studies, which themselves will then need competing peer studies to eventually prove out.

Japanese flu drug appears ‘effective’ in coronavirus treatment in Chinese clinical trials

Japanese-made flu drug favipiravir (also known as Avigan) has been shown to be effective in both reducing the duration of the COVID-19 virus in patients, and to have improved the lung conditions of those who received treatment with the drug, based on results of clinical trials conducted with affected patients in both Wuhan and Shenzhen by Chinese medical authorities.

The trials involved 340 patients in total, and since they drug has already been developed and approved for use in treating flu, it has a “high degree of safety,” according to China science and technology ministry official Zhang Xinmin, who spoke to reporters on Wednesday according to The Guardian. The tests showed a reduction in the period during which patients tested positive for the new coronavirus from 11 days down to just four, and showed improvements in the lung condition of around 91 percent of patients treated with favipiravir, compared to just 62 percent for those without among the trial participants.

The Chinese studies are not the only attempt to test the efficacy of the drug in COVID-19 treatment – Japanese doctors are bonding their own studies. A Japanese health ministry source told Japanese newspaper the Manichi Shimbun that the drug so far has been given to around 70 to 80 people, but that early results suggest it isn’t effective in treating those with more severe symptoms where the virus has already multiplied to a much greater extend.

Still, a treatment that is effective in reducing the duration of the presence of the virus even in milder cases, and in lessening the impacts in moderate symptomatic patients, would be a huge benefit to the ongoing fight against the coronavirus. Any approvals for use of favipiravir would of course require further clinical testing, followed by approval of widespread use by each country’s relevant medical treatment regulating body.

Other drug treatments have been tested for COVID-19 treatment, and are in the process of development, but no antiviral has yet been approved or created specifically for dealing with the new coronavirus. Other drugs that have shown early promising signs include remadesivir, a compound developed by Gilead Sciences that has shown some promise as a general antiviral.

Ebola and the ongoing global health emergency that no one is noticing

On Wednesday the World Health Organization declared the ongoing – and now year-old – Ebola outbreak a global health emergency.

The emergency declaration comes after a man became sick and brought the virus to the Congolese city of Goma, a highly populated transit hub with an international airport and next door to Rwanda. As it stands today, the current Ebola outbreak has surpassed 2,500 cases and 1,500 deaths concentrated largely in two provinces in eastern Congo.

The response effort has been hampered by a deadly mix of armed conflict, distrust, and lack of medical resources. Less than half of the affected population trusts the government and Ebola responders; armed groups have even killed responders. Public health experts expect the outbreak to continue into the foreseeable future.

Yet outside the public health community there has been relatively little concern in America about the second largest Ebola outbreak in history. By one crude metric, the President’s tweets, the current outbreak hasn’t even registered. During the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic, which also generated an emergency declaration, Mr. Trump tweeted nearly a hundred times about Ebola. This outbreak? 0. Unfortunately this lack of public attention has translated into a shortfall in funding particularly in contrast to the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic.

Going viral?

The contrast in concern between the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic and current Ebola outbreak can largely be explained by proximity and fear. Interest in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic rose when two U.S. nurses contracted the virus from an imported case in Dallas. However, there was considerable public interest in the outbreak even before the infections in Dallas.

This suggests there is an innate fear associated with the Ebola virus itself. Fear from infectious diseases can be quantified by the deadliness of the pathogen, the severity of the symptoms, how much is known about it, how it’s transmitted, and whether treatment or preventive measures are available. Due to the severity of Ebola virus disease, you would expect any abnormally large Ebola outbreak to create a large amount of news coverage.

When determining the amount of attention an event should receive, public health professionals and news editors face a similar question: is this event significantly different from the baseline, or what’s expected? If so, the event can be considered an outbreak and demands the public’s attention. If not, the event would be considered part of the expected baseline and not enter the public consciousness.

After the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic resulted in nearly 30,000 infections, there is a legitimate concern that the public has reached Ebola fatigue and have shifted our expectations on what constitutes an emergency, leading to a subdued attention and response. Infectious diseases rarely make the news once the disease becomes an endemic, chronic problem (e.g., the HIV/AIDS epidemic).

Fear. What is it good for?

Fear, or lack of fear, is currently making a bad situation worse. In a recent interview, the WHO director-general spelled out two major facts: 1. the current Ebola outbreak is unlikely to end until security concerns are addressed in Congo and 2. donors refrain from funding unless they feel fear and panic.

On the ground, fear is continuing to deepen distrust towards responders occasionally triggering violence and unrest.

For potential donors, the absence of fear and public attention is causing a shortfall in funding needed for response and preparedness efforts (e.g., surveillance, healthcare infrastructure) that can limit an outbreak’s spread.

If fear can be leveraged to contain the current outbreak and fund preparedness efforts, fear can also eliminate future Ebola headlines for the right reasons; because we eliminated the threat, not because it becomes an endemic problem.

Ebola and the ongoing global health emergency that no one is noticing

On Wednesday the World Health Organization declared the ongoing – and now year-old – Ebola outbreak a global health emergency.

The emergency declaration comes after a man became sick and brought the virus to the Congolese city of Goma, a highly populated transit hub with an international airport and next door to Rwanda. As it stands today, the current Ebola outbreak has surpassed 2,500 cases and 1,500 deaths concentrated largely in two provinces in eastern Congo.

The response effort has been hampered by a deadly mix of armed conflict, distrust, and lack of medical resources. Less than half of the affected population trusts the government and Ebola responders; armed groups have even killed responders. Public health experts expect the outbreak to continue into the foreseeable future.

Yet outside the public health community there has been relatively little concern in America about the second largest Ebola outbreak in history. By one crude metric, the President’s tweets, the current outbreak hasn’t even registered. During the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic, which also generated an emergency declaration, Mr. Trump tweeted nearly a hundred times about Ebola. This outbreak? 0. Unfortunately this lack of public attention has translated into a shortfall in funding particularly in contrast to the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic.

Going viral?

The contrast in concern between the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic and current Ebola outbreak can largely be explained by proximity and fear. Interest in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic rose when two U.S. nurses contracted the virus from an imported case in Dallas. However, there was considerable public interest in the outbreak even before the infections in Dallas.

This suggests there is an innate fear associated with the Ebola virus itself. Fear from infectious diseases can be quantified by the deadliness of the pathogen, the severity of the symptoms, how much is known about it, how it’s transmitted, and whether treatment or preventive measures are available. Due to the severity of Ebola virus disease, you would expect any abnormally large Ebola outbreak to create a large amount of news coverage.

When determining the amount of attention an event should receive, public health professionals and news editors face a similar question: is this event significantly different from the baseline, or what’s expected? If so, the event can be considered an outbreak and demands the public’s attention. If not, the event would be considered part of the expected baseline and not enter the public consciousness.

After the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic resulted in nearly 30,000 infections, there is a legitimate concern that the public has reached Ebola fatigue and have shifted our expectations on what constitutes an emergency, leading to a subdued attention and response. Infectious diseases rarely make the news once the disease becomes an endemic, chronic problem (e.g., the HIV/AIDS epidemic).

Fear. What is it good for?

Fear, or lack of fear, is currently making a bad situation worse. In a recent interview, the WHO director-general spelled out two major facts: 1. the current Ebola outbreak is unlikely to end until security concerns are addressed in Congo and 2. donors refrain from funding unless they feel fear and panic.

On the ground, fear is continuing to deepen distrust towards responders occasionally triggering violence and unrest.

For potential donors, the absence of fear and public attention is causing a shortfall in funding needed for response and preparedness efforts (e.g., surveillance, healthcare infrastructure) that can limit an outbreak’s spread.

If fear can be leveraged to contain the current outbreak and fund preparedness efforts, fear can also eliminate future Ebola headlines for the right reasons; because we eliminated the threat, not because it becomes an endemic problem.