U.S. online shoppers already spent $50B in November, holiday season on track for $143.7B

Facing a shorter holiday shopping season this year, U.S. retailers started rolling out their Black Friday deals earlier than usual. That move has paid off, according to new e-commerce data shared by Adobe Analytics this morning, which found that U.S. consumers have already spent $50.1 billion online between November 1 and November 26, 2019 — which represents a comparable increase of 15.8 percent year-over-year.

This year, Thanksgiving arrived on November 28, a full week later than it did in 2018 when it came on November 22. That left retailers with 6 fewer days to drive post-Thanksgiving Day sales — a situation it hadn’t been in since 2013, when the shorter time frame led to serious delivery struggles. To salvage the lost shopping days (and to not again find themselves in a similar situation as 2013), retailers simply rolled out their deals a week early.

For example, Amazon kicked off a Black Friday deals week on November 22. Walmart introduced early savings through “Buy Now” deals on Walmart.com, in addition to a pre-Black Friday event that started on Nov. 22. Target integrated Shipt’s same-day shopping service into its app and ran a preview sale, weekend deals, and today, Nov. 27, an early access sale. Other retailers followed suit, as well.

But consumers weren’t even waiting for these Black Friday preview deals to start shopping. According to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online transactions for 80 of the top 100 U.S. retailers, all 26 days in November so far have surpassed $1 billion in online sales. Seven days even passed $2 billion in sales, which made 2019 the first year to see multiple $2 billion days this early in the shopping season.

And as of this morning, $240 million has already been spent online, representing 19.3% growth year-over-year, and putting the day on track to hit $2.9 billion.

 

Based on this data, Adobe believes its earlier forecast of $143.7 billion spent during the full holiday shopping season (Nov.-Dec.) remains accurate. That estimate represents a 14.1% rise from a year ago, according to Adobe. In addition, the three biggest shopping days — Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday — will also see increases, it says.

Thanksgiving Day sales are forecast to jump 19.7% year-over-year to $4.4 billion; Black Friday is expected to grow by 20.5% to reach $7.5 billion; and Cyber Monday sales are expected to top the charts at $9.4 billion, an increase of 19.1% year-over-year — a new record.

The firm also sees a surge in mobile shopping this year, with 34.3% of all e-commerce sales being made via a smartphone, up 24.2% year-over-year. App Annie’s mobile shopping forecast had also predicted a record numbers of mobile shoppers, with a 25% year-over-year increase in time spent mobile shopping during the weeks of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The firm said shoppers will spend 2.2 billion hours globally across shopping apps this holiday season.

Other notable trends include a rise in “buy online, pickup in-store” shopping — 61% will take advantage of this, leading to 27% more in sales over last year. Plus email promotions this season have led to 16.5% of all online revenue, up 10% year-over-year. Paid search accounted for 23.7% of sales, while social media led to just 2.8%.

In terms of products, shoppers are buying Apple AirPods, Apple Laptops, Samsung and LG TV’s, Frozen 2 toys, L.O.L Surprise Dolls, NERF toys, Pikmi Pops, Fortnite toys, and games like Pokemon Sword/Shield, Jedi Fallen Order, and Madden 20.

“With the shorter shopping season and retailers starting their promotions earlier, Adobe is seeing holiday discounts already well underway even before Thanksgiving Day,” said Jason Woosley, Vice President of Commerce Product & Platform at Adobe. “For televisions alone, shoppers are already seeing discounts twice as deep as expected with average savings yesterday of 17.5%. Those consumers who grab their smartphone to do some quick online shopping after dinner are likely to find offers that are even better than this time last year,” he added.

 

Thanksgiving travel nightmare projected to hit these U.S. cities the worst

The latest data from Inrix paints a dismal picture for folks traveling Wednesday (that’s today!) ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Drivers in Boston, New York City and San Francisco will see the largest delays with drive times nearly quadruple the norm, according to AAA and Inrix, which aggregates and analyzes traffic data collected from vehicles and highway infrastructure.

AAA is projecting 54.3 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more away from home this Thanksgiving, a 4.8 percent increase over last year. It’s a record breaker of a year for travel. This weekend will see the highest Thanksgiving travel volume in more than a dozen years (since 2005), with 2.5 million more people taking to the nation’s roads, skies, rails and waterways compared with last year, according to AAA.

The roads will be particularly packed, according to Inrix. Some 48.5 million people —5 percent more than last year —will travel on roads this Thanksgiving holiday, a period defined as Wednesday, November 21 to Sunday, November 25.

The worst travel times? It’s already here in some places. San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles will be particularly dicey Wednesday with travel times twice to four times longer than usual. Other cities projected to have the worst travel times include Detroit along U.S. Highway 23 North, Houston on the north and southbound Interstate 45 and Los Angeles, particularly northbound on Interstate 5.

inrix thanksgiving traffic data

Even travel times to airports have increased Wednesday. Travel times from downtown Seattle to the airport via Interstate 5 south and Chicago to O’Hare Airport via the Kennedy Expressway will be particularly long. The Chicago route, for instance, is projected to take 1 hour and 27 minutes at the peak time between 1:30 pm and 3:30 pm CT.

There are alternatives, of course. In most cases, the best days to travel will be on Thanksgiving Day, Friday or Saturday, according to Inrix and AAA.

Amazon admits it exposed customer email addresses, but refuses to give details

Amazon’s renowned secrecy encompasses its response to a new security issue, withholding info that could help victims protect themselves.

Amazon emailed users Tuesday, warning them that a it exposed an unknown number of customer email addresses after a “technical error” on its website.

When reached for comment, an Amazon spokesperson told TechCrunch that the issue exposed names as well as email addresses. “We have fixed the issue and informed customers who may have been impacted.” The company emailed all impacted users to be cautious.

In response to a request for specifics, a spokesperson said the company had “nothing to add beyond our statement.” The company denies there was a data breach of its website of any of its systems, and says it’s fixed the issue, but dismissed our request for more info including the cause, scale, and circumstances of the error.

Amazon’s reticence here puts those impacted at greater risk. Users don’t know which of Amazon’s sites was impacted, who their email address could have been exposed to, or any ballpark figure of the number of victims. It’s also unclear whether it has or plans to contact any government regulatory bodies.

“We’re contacting you to let you know that our website inadvertently disclosed your email address due to a technical error,” said Amazon in the email with the subject line: “Important Information about your Amazon.com Account.” The only details Amazon provided were that: “The issue has been fixed. This is not a result of anything you have done, and there is no need for you to change your password or take any other action.”

The security lapse comes days ahead of one of the busiest retail days of the year, the post-Thanksgiving holiday sales day, Black Friday. The issue could scare users away from Amazon, which could be problematic for revenue if the issue impacted a wide number of users just before the heavy shopping day.

Amazon’s vague and non-specific email also sparked criticism from users — including security experts — who accused the company of withholding information. Some said that the correspondence looked like a phishing email, used to trick customers into turning over account information.

Customers in both the U.S., the U.K. and Europe have reported receiving an email from Amazon.

Amazon, as a Washington-based company, is required to inform the state attorney general of data incidents involving 500 state residents or more. Yet, in Europe, where data protection rules are stronger — even in the wake of the recently introduced General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) — it’s less clear if Amazon needs to disclose the incident.

The UK’s data protection regulator, the Information Commissioner’s Office, told TechCrunch: “Under the GDPR, organizations must assess if a breach should be reported to the ICO, or to the equivalent supervisory body if they are not based in the UK.”

“It is always the company’s responsibility to identify when UK citizens have been affected as part of a data breach and take steps to reduce any harm to consumers,” a spokesperson said. “The ICO will however continue to monitor the situation and cooperate with other supervisory authorities where required.”

To continue earning our trust, technology companies need to be forthcoming and transparent when security problems arise. Not only does that provide victims with the maximum amount of information they can use to recover and avoid future problems, but it also gives users confidence that their data is being responsibly managed no matter what happens.

People fear what they don’t understand, and for now, Amazon is failing to help the public understand what happened.

TechCrunch’s Natasha Lomas contributed to this report.

Google’s annual Thanksgiving report tells you the best times to avoid traffic jams

Google has released its annual Thanksgiving traffic and search trends report, created by analyzing data from last year’s holiday season. It breaks down the best and worst times to travel by state and also throws in information about when popular places, like grocery and liquor stores, are the most crowded. Even if you can’t avoid Thanksgiving travel hell, Google’s interactive site will at least let you know what level of hell to expect by showing traffic stats by state, day, and time.

Here are some highlights: not surprisingly, Wednesday between 3PM to 4PM is when traffic is at its most abysmal during Thanksgiving week, but it becomes significantly less packed by 6AM on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day. For return trips, Google’s report advises leaving Friday or Sunday morning, since most people don’t hit the road until the afternoon.

The crowds in bakeries and grocery stores are at their peak the afternoon before Thanksgiving as shoppers grab last-minute supplies. Trips to liquor stores also jump around the same time as people fortify themselves for the next day. On Black Friday, shopping centers are obviously crowded, but many people also chose to spend the afternoon catching a movie.

If you think you can avoid crowds by doing some early Christmas tree shopping or renting an all-terrain vehicle instead, you might want to think again. Using historic data from searches across the United States, Google found that tree farms, electronic stores, ATV rental services, and video game stores are among the “most uniquely popular stops” on Thanksgiving (apparently people enjoy views from high places the day before Thanksgiving, when rollercoasters and scenic overlooks are popular).

Google also shows the most popular search terms during Thanksgiving week last year on a state-by-state level. In California, it was “city courthouse,” while in Pennsylvania people looked up “electric vehicle charging.” Montanans searched for “breweries,” South Dakotans Googled “American restaurant,” and people in Nevada wanted to know more about “parking garages.” Meanwhile, “home improvement store” hit the top of the list in Nebraska, North Dakota, and Iowa.

How to build STEM toys

On chilly Saturday mornings my father would fire up the kerosene heater and get the back of our garage warm. He’d turn on the old radio, constantly tuned to the local public radio station, and Wait, Wait, Don’t Tell Me or Harry Shearer would come on, clearing away the static like gust of wind through cobwebs.

“Get your old clothes on,” he’d say, sticking his head into the warm kitchen. I’d still be in my pajamas. I’d grunt and grumble. I wanted to watch TV or play with my computer or read or do anything other than sit on a milk crate in a cold garage and fix the car.

But that’s what you did. If there was something to be done on the car back in 1985 – back when I was ten and my Dad was still alive – we did it ourselves. Everything in those old engines was accessible. Nothing was packed in, nothing was covered in plastic cowlings, hidden away and out of sight. Back then you could follow the brake lines through the car just by laying underneath it. You could see which belts needed tightening, which seals were leaking, and what was going on with the spark plugs. So that’s what we did. We replaced brake pads. We pulled out the oil plug and let black crude flow from the little hole like a solid thing into a cut off milk jug. We turned little screws to fix the idle. We gapped spark plugs, changed tires, and generally did everything we could do that didn’t require a mechanic’s lift.

Sometimes the fix was easy. We’d jack up each side and put on his studded snow tires in November, just after Thanksgiving, so we could drive, the road sizzling under us, to the Ohio River Valley and up slick hills to visit our cousins. We’d check fluids and top things off. We’d replace an air or oil filter.

And other times, when the problem was too big, he’d consult the Chilton repair manual. This manual held deep arcana about the Ford Fairmont or the VW Vanagon he owned. They made a manual for almost any car, like an O’Reilly book for mechanics. The books remained pristine in that grubby garage because that book held everything we needed to know about fixing everything in the car. He took good care of them.

When we pulled the manual I knew we’d be out there for a while. The kerosene heater would hiss as I rumbled my dad’s stuff, pulling out old copper wire and magazines, avoiding the places I knew he hid guns or old copies of Mayfair. I’d try to build my own things until he needed me. One year I was working on a banjo (it never played right) and another year I made a shoulder-mounted rocket launcher (I didn’t shoot my eye out). He’d call out for tools. Monkey wrench. Needle nose. 11mm. No, the other one. The jar full of bolts he collected over the years, unsorted. He knew where everything was and he knew when he needed it. I was his assistant in the slow surgery he performed.

And I’d take part. I’d hold something while he twisted. I’d get my small hands in where his big hands didn’t fit. I’d hold the trouble light, a yellow caged thing that burned you if you touched the metal bulb cage.

Once I sprinkled water on the hot bulb. It exploded and he explained thermodynamics to me as he picked glass out of the cage and screwed in a new light.

When we were done, after hours of slow, methodical work, he’d fire up the car and we’d go for a drive. The knock would be gone (or sometimes it would be worse). The brakes would work better, the steering would be stronger, the engine would purr instead of lope. We’d drive down the street to White Castle or BW3 or just down to the highway to open the thing up and see if still drove. It always did.

Tools, not toys

The last time I did my own work on a car was in Fairfax, Virginia. My brake pads were going and I figured I’d replace them. I knew how. I bought the Chilton, bought the pads, and sat in a parking structure, jacking up the car with a little screw jack that threatened to buckle.

I put them on backwards. Front pads in the back, back pads in the front. The car drove like crap.

I gave up and took it to the Sears repair center around the corner. That was in 1999 or so, back when Sears still ruled the malls around DC.

“Missssster BIGGS,” yelled the service guy over the din of daytime TV and pneumatic tools. He was laughing.

“We fixed it, man. You did a great job, though, really,” he said. He handed me a bill.

And that was that. An entire body of knowledge lost in a heartbeat. I haven’t cracked the hood except to top up my washer fluid in two decades. Why, when the car is more robot than mechanical horse?

But those cold weekends weren’t a waste. I learned to riddle out problems, to dig through old books for good answers, to accept nothing at face value. The broken part is always out of sight – a seal, a cracked hose, a fracture in a piece of cast steel – and it’s great fun to suss it out. So I did learn something. I learned to think through physical problems by solving physical problems. I learned electronics by replacing wires. I learned patience.

Fast forward to today’s fashion for STEM toys. These toys are supposed to do all the work that my father did with me on those cold Saturdays. A little robot that runs around on the floor is supposed to replace building and learning. A box of parts that fit together like Lego and animated with a few lines of code should be enough for any kid to get a body of knowledge so deep that we won’t be plunged into a dark pit of ignorance come 2040.

But they toys don’t work. I’ve been very critical of modern STEM toys because they are just toys. The only things I’ve found remotely education are Scratch, with its BASIC-like mental syntax, and Adafruit products that require actual soldering. Every other one, from the Nintendo Labo to the broken robot at the bottom of our basement stairs, are junk.

It’s our responsibility as parents to educate. There’s not much opportunity to do that anymore. Education without a goal is empty. I learned by tearing down and building up. It’s hard to do that these days when everything is deeply disposable. But maybe there’s hope. I’ve vowed to show my kids the command line, the protocols, and the code behind their favorite games. My son owns Bitcoin and he follows the price like a stock trader. My daughter builds Raspberry Pi things on a regular basis, understanding that she holds a computer, not a toy, in her small hand. We learn how to fix broken things, opening old gadgets from my childhood, cleaning the contacts, replacing the batteries. One of our favorite games is the Dungeons & Dragons Computer Labyrinth, a game we resurrected with a little careful troubleshooting.

This fiddling is obviously not the same as what I did with my dad. I doubt I’ll be able to recreate those mornings, as much as I hated them then and love them now. Maybe my days of cold garages and NPR are over. And maybe all our children deserve are Logo Turtles made out of injection-molded plastic. But I’m willing to bet that somewhere out there there’s a kid who wants to do, not be told to do, and at the end of the project wants to feel the wind in her hair and smell a cold snap coming across the plains, crisp and clear and full of the future. And it’s our job to provide that feeling, no matter what. We can’t offload that onto a toy.

Google launches new travel-planning tools

Slowly but surely, Google is expanding its portfolio of travel offerings that now range from hotel- and flight-booking services to trip planning tools. Today, it’s launching yet another set of new travel features that focus on travel planning and hotel bookings.

Maybe the most interesting new tool, especially if you are planning to travel over the holidays, is a new landing page that shows you when to best book your flights ahead of Thanksgiving, the December holidays and New Year’s based on 2017’s price changes. The tool is a bit limited in the number of city pairs it supports, but if you plan to fly on one of the 25 supported routes, then it could definitely save you a few dollars (assuming this year’s price trends are comparable to last year’s).

The same page will also show you hotel deals, though that’s more of a lead-generation tool for Google Maps’ hotel search feature, which many people probably don’t yet know about.

Once you have decided on a destination, Google’s new hotel location score can then help you find the neighborhood that’s best for you. The score summarizes information like nearby bars, landmarks and access to public transportation based on data from Google Maps. It’ll also tell you how to get to and from the airport, which is a smart addition.

Come October, Google will also launch Your Trips, a new feature that’ll help you organize your travel plans. Your Trips is not a new feature, but when this update goes live, it’ll collect all of your flight price tracking, hotel research and everything else you may have saved about a potential trip in one place. It’s a bit like Inbox’s (RIP) trip bundles, but for trips that you are still planning.

And finally, if you perform a regular search for a popular travel destination in Google Search, the result page will automatically highlight these trip-planning features, including day plans and articles about the destination. Once you start booking a trip, these results will also include information about your bookings and additional information based on this data.

The problems with Facebook are inherent in its design, but that can change